The road from high school to college to the labor market is no longer as clear as it once was.
Fewer Washington high school graduates are choosing to pursue higher education, a trend that predates the COVID-19 pandemic but has accelerated in recent years. At the same time, those who do enroll are facing complex challenges to their ability to persist, with fewer and fewer making it to graduation. Meanwhile, questions about the cost and value of higher education continue to shape student decisions, with alternative education pathways gaining increased traction.
The choices students make — where to attend, whether to enroll at all, and whether to persist through graduation — are all shaped by economic pressures, cultural attitudes, and the perceived value of a degree. For leaders across WSU, understanding these trends is essential as we make decisions that shape the university’s future.
Key takeaways from this report:
- Shifting Pipelines: The share of Washington high school graduates enrolling in the state’s public four-year institutions has remained relatively stable, but the share heading to out-of-state institutions saw a significant rise before dropping sharply post-2021. Fewer students are choosing to go on to college, with the effects of the pandemic being felt unevenly across different genders, races, and ethnicities.
- Declining Enrollment and Graduation Rates: Fewer students are enrolling in undergraduate programs despite the growing population count in Washington. While Washington’s public four-year first-year retention rate is holding strong, the state’s six-year graduation rate has fallen below the national average after historically outperforming it.
- Unclear Costs and Benefits: The value of higher education is increasingly questioned. While the cost of education has increased on paper, inflation-adjusted costs now mirror those from 2011. However, wage premiums vary significantly by race, gender, and major, creating uncertainty for prospective students. In light of this, job market-focused alternatives like vocational programs and tech boot camps are becoming more popular.
Ready to dive deeper? Explore the full study and discover detailed insights below. View or download the PDF to see how our findings can support informed decision-making and planning at WSU. For more information about environmental scanning at OSPA, check out our trends page.
About the Author
Stephen Pool is a Data and Strategy Associate in the Office of Strategy, Planning, and Analysis (OSPA) at Washington State University. With his background in labor market analysis and education economics, he supports the WSU system by providing insights that inform decision-making and guide the university’s priorities.